Check out the UFC predictions for UFC Vegas 91: Nicolau vs. Perez this Saturday, April 27th at Luck Ratings.
The UFC gave fans a much-needed week off last week to digest UFC 300, but it’s back to regular programming this week. This means we’ll have another lackluster UFC Apex card in Las Vegas before the promotion heads to Brazil for UFC 301.
Still, it costs the same whether you win the main event of UFC 300 or the prelims of an unforgettable fight night, so let’s break down the early value of UFC Vegas 91. Saturday’s preliminary card will air on ESPN2 at 4:00 PM ET (1:00 PM PT). , the main card will air on ESPN at 7pm ET.
One of the first “aha!” experiences I had with gambling (not just MMA, but in general) was that instead of just trying to predict what would happen, I was trying to figure out why the market was wrong. I started thinking about it.
Essentially, a betting line is a market where you can “buy” or “sell” events that are happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient and the “prices” ultimately reflect the true odds of an event.
While this is less true in MMA, where there is much more information asymmetry than major markets like the NFL or NBA, it is still broadly (and increasingly) true. Therefore, to beat the market in the long run, you need to identify where the market is wrong.
That is the point of this work. Inspired by the NFL’s “luck rankings,” we’ll explore where variance gives one fighter an advantage over another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be splits and controversial decisions, as well as last-minute fights, fights that are later dismissed, fluke injuries, and fights outside your weight class.
The focus will be on fights where there is a fair chance of seeing the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
*UFC odds as of Monday via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 91 using DraftKings promo codes.
UFC predictions and luck ratings
Matheus Nicolau (-185) vs. Alex Perez (+154)
The main event of UFC Vegas 91 will feature a pair of top 10 flyweight contenders, No. 5 ranked Mateusz Nicolaou and No. 8 ranked Alex Perez.
Nicolaou comes into this fight looking to bounce back and get a shot at the title after losing to Brandon Roybal in what was supposed to be the fight of the No. 1 contender. He has been shelved since April last year after an unsuccessful pairing with Manel Cape in January.
Perez himself is no stranger to canceling fights, with nine of them canceled in the three-and-a-half years since he challenged for the flyweight title. During that period, he only appeared twice. Both bouts resulted in losses, including a submission loss to reigning champion Alexandre Pantoja and a close decision loss to No. 7 flyweight Mohamed Mokayev.
However, his loss to Mokaev was close. About a third of the media members gave Perez the score, making it arguably the closest fight of Mokaev’s undefeated career.
If Perez had come off the bench in the win over Mokaev, we’d be having a different conversation now. As of this writing, Caesars has him slightly undervalued with a high of +155 at his sportsbook, but the line looks solid so there’s no need to rush.
Verdict: Alex Perez is somewhat underrated
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Karine Silva (-148) vs. Ariane Lipsky (+124)
I really wish I had gotten to this point sooner.
Karine Silva opened between +110 and +120 depending on the sportsbook, but has now fallen to a moderate favorite. According to my assessment, that’s totally understandable.
Silva is an elite submission specialist, with all 17 of his professional wins coming within striking distance. Lipski is a technically good striker, but he lacks power.
This gives Silva the advantage for much of the finish here. Lipski has only two of his six wins in the UFC, both by submission. The best-case scenario for Lipsky is probably a close decision, as it’s unlikely to happen against a good grappler.
In any case, at this moment it is important to choose the slowest moving line possible. As of this writing earlier in the week, that’s on FanDuel, where Silva is still listed at -146.
For now, keep that stake at half a unit. We’ll be looking for some more juicy angles on Silva later this week.
Verdict: Karine Silva is underrated
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